In 2024, with the rapid release of N-type production capacity and the rapid increase in market share, the market pattern of various technologies is constantly reshaping, and the TOPCon technology route has become the undisputed mainstream battery route.
According to TrendForce consulting data, it is expected that by the end of 2024, the production capacity of solar cells will be about 1417GW, and the production capacity of N-type solar cells will be about 1078GW, accounting for about 76%. The N-type era has officially arrived; The TOPCon battery production capacity is about 941GW, accounting for approximately 66.4%. The N-type technology route dominated by TOPCon is accelerating its expansion in market applications. It is expected that by 2029, TOPCon battery cell output will account for over 84%, far ahead of other technology routes.
1. Steady expansion and landing, TOPCon market further expands
With the acceleration of mass production of N-type products, various links in the industry chain are making new layouts around the landing of N-type production capacity, and the trend of technology route selection is more certain. TOPCon technology will move towards all-round landing.
Silicon wafer stage: Historical decision, P-type era officially ends
According to data from Jibang Consulting, from the monthly production schedule in the first half of 2024, the output of N-type silicon wafers accounted for about 85% in June, and the production of P-type silicon wafers was severely reduced. In the second half of the year, as terminal demand weakens, P-type production capacity that does not have room for upgrading and transformation is likely to face clearance (P upgrading and transformation to TOPCon). It is expected that by the end of 2024, the output of N-type silicon wafers will account for about 75%. With the rapid release of downstream N-type battery production capacity, the output proportion of N-type silicon wafers will also increase rapidly.
Battery Cell Stage: Technological Transformation Wave, Top Enterprises Expand Production and Release
From the second half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, TOPCon production capacity will accelerate its release. With the continuous ramp up of new production capacity and the mastery of TOPCon battery technology by mid to late end battery companies, the barriers to efficient TOPCon battery production will gradually be eliminated.
According to the prediction of Jibang Consulting, by the end of 2024, the production capacity of solar cells will be about 1417GW, of which the production capacity of N-type solar cells will be about 1078GW, accounting for about 76%; Among them, TOPCon's battery production capacity is about 941GW, accounting for approximately 66.4%. In addition, it is expected that by 2029, TOPCon output will account for over 84%, and TOPCon will remain the mainstream N-type technology within a 5-year cycle.
Component Stage: Bidding Data Confirms Continuous Growth in Terminal Demand
Behind the growth of market data is the continuous increase in terminal demand. As terminal demand officially kicks off, the proportion of N-type components will rapidly increase.
According to incomplete statistics from Jibang Consulting, the bidding capacity for centralized procurement of components by domestic central state-owned enterprises in the first half of 2024 is about 108GW, of which about 90.3GW are N-type components, accounting for about 84%. The penetration rate is accelerating and has become the absolute mainstream. And the premium of PERC components remains at around 0.05 yuan/W, highlighting the cost-effectiveness advantage.
2. Focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, explore infinite possibilities
The current development of TOPCon technology has two major characteristics: increasing efficiency; The cost is getting lower and lower. According to data from Jibang Consulting, the N-P price difference remained around 0.05 yuan/W in June. The narrowing of price differences relies more on the promotion and implementation of technology, products, and applications. To achieve this goal, "increasing efficiency and reducing costs" has become the key. With the continuous deepening of technology research and development, from the perspective of achieving industrialization at lower costs, TOPCon will still have an absolute leading advantage in the next 5 years.
Technological evolution provides a new path for cost reduction and efficiency improvement
In the short term, TOPCon remains the most cost-effective technology route. The continuous development of photovoltaic technology requires a constant underlying logic of "increasing efficiency, decreasing cost, and increasing reliability". Although at the forefront of the flourishing development of various technologies, TOPCon is still the most cost-effective technology route at present.
In the long run, the ultimate goal of cost reduction and efficiency improvement will drive technological development, and subsequent technological development will further achieve the superposition of various advanced technologies, equipment cost reduction, efficiency breakthroughs, and further cost reduction on this goal, with enormous potential for the future.
With the end of TOPCon's capacity expansion cycle, TOPCon technology will achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement at a faster pace. From 2024 to 2026, TOPCon battery technology will enter the 2.0 era, and TOPCon batteries will enter a new round of technological iteration. The technologies of front boron diffusion, back polycrystalline silicon layer optimization, front contact (LECO), edge PET, etc. are accelerating their introduction. It is expected that with the mature mass production of double-sided Poly technology, TOPCon 2.0 era will officially enter the 3.0 lifecycle. Considering the excellent adaptability of TOPCon battery technology and the integration of multiple advanced technologies and materials, TOPCon stacking will achieve technological breakthroughs and open up new possibilities.
The future is here, and the layout of top enterprises leads the industry forward
TOPCon, as an N-type technology, has the characteristics of compatibility with PERC production and process. During the iteration window period of P-to-N-type technology, leading enterprises firmly chose and quickly laid out.
Currently, companies such as JinkoSolar, Tongwei Co., Ltd., JA Solar, Trina Solar, Chint New Energy, and Jietai have all achieved large-scale production of N-type TOPCon batteries. Since the beginning of this year, multiple projects involving TOPCon have started or signed contracts, and leading companies have increased their investment, demonstrating strong confidence in related TOPCon products.
Top battery cell manufacturers, relying on their technological, process, and scale advantages, generally have higher production costs than mid to late end manufacturers, and their advanced production capacity will continue to lead. Against the backdrop of an overall decline in industry chain prices, integrated enterprises with more efficient, high yield, and low-cost TOPCon production capacity are expected to gain more profits.
Summary:
Looking back at the development process of the industry, it can be found that technological innovation closely follows the market application, which is the foundation for maintaining the healthy development of the industry, stimulating more diverse application scenarios, and continuously promoting the green and efficient development of the industry. If demand is driving the rapid growth of TOPCon product market in 2024, then with the explosive evolution of various technologies and the continuous transformation of various enterprises and the choice of market direction, TOPCon technology still has great potential in the five-year cycle until 2029. Other N-type technologies, such as BC, due to their complex processes, instability caused by battery structure characteristics, and performance shortcomings such as low double-sided rate leading to a decrease in power generation per watt, cannot become mainstream and can only be applied in some niche markets, with an expected market share of around 10%. In 5 years, TOPCon will be more suitable as the bottom battery for stacked batteries, and TOPCon+perovskite stacked battery technology will continue to unleash strong vitality.